An introduction and explanation of the Simple Rating System can be found at the start of my GW17 article.
Let’s start by going over the GW36 predictions and results:
6/11 correct predictions. Above 50% again and we’ll take that. Model was successful in calling some tough games here with Cha, Bla and Eve wins. Liverpool continue to be the troll of the model together with Spurs. The model just can’t seem to figure out their results. I was very lucky this week to still have my BB with Kiely, Jensen, Taggart and Blanc on my bench. I captained Boa Morte and finished with a GW rank of 5 and OR of 11. 2 more strong weeks and I’ll be able to celebrate the end of this season.
3/3 correct recommendations. Yes, that is correct! For the 2nd time in a row, 3 successful recommendations and for some of the readers (Ronarid9 I am looking at you) it has proved very helpful. LBM, CMFPL legend, did even more than I expected. Jason Euell who came into the recommendations only after the leak scored his goal and of course Sela who continues to be outstanding since I dropped him in my WC. I am now looking to keep this roll going and finish the season strong.
Now for GW37 ratings and predictions:
SRS Ratings:
Home & Away Ratings:
Bayes Rating:
GW37 Predictions:
Another fascinating DGW in front of us. But before we go into the I want to point out something funny in the ratings above. As you can see, in the SRS rating and the Home rating, Newcastle have exactly score of 0. In other words, Newcastle are exactly an average team in our league according to the model. This means that any of the other team scores are basically a direct comparison to Newcastle, and how many goals that team will score more/less than Newcastle in an average game. Let’s focus on 3 fixtures from this GW now.
First player to recommend this week is Emerson. Utd have the double, Utd haven’t won the league yet, Roy Keane has a one-match ban. Putting these 3 facts together gives us a great opportunity to own a 6m Utd midfielder, that is guaranteed to play one if not two games, Utd have a combined margin of exactly (2) and I can see Emerson continuing his great run.
Second player to recommend this week is Robbie Keane. We can’t ignore Leeds massive (2.6) expected margin against Sou. The only problem is the whole Rep thing with Leeds, so I’m going with the player that I’m positive will start. This can be a real celebration for Leeds, and if that will be the case, Keane will be involved.
Third player to recommend is J Arca. I myself haven’t owned a Sunderland player all season, and I feel like I am missing out. Phillips is going to be a game time decision and if he plays Sunderland have every chance to beat up Der at home. Expected margin of (1.7) suggests at least 2 goals margin win and I am tipping Arca to get a CS + Attacking return.
