by @TheSchachter

An introduction and explanation of the Simple Rating System can be found at the start of my GW17 article.

Let’s start by going over the GW33 predictions and results:

10/10 correct predictions. Boom. Like clockwork. I hinted last week that it seemed to be an easy week to call, but even I didn’t expect this kind of success, even the only predicted away win was correct. Very nice and moving on now to blank GW34 where we have a very different situation, with 4 away wins predicted. I can’t see another 10/10 in this one.

1/3 correct recommendations. Gerrard blanked, Harte didn’t play, but Jansen, Matt fucking Jansen came through. The only one that I needed to perform. Hopefully he carries on in the next 2-3 GWs.

Now for GW34 ratings and predictions:

SRS Ratings:

Home & Away Ratings:

Bayes Rating:

GW33 Predictions:

This week again we will have to do without our Utd players. Otherwise there are some tasty looking fixtures in our list, so let’s try and tackle 3 of those. As you already starting to see, my actual recommendations are not very good, but the teams that I’m picking nearly always deliver, so try to improve my player selections within the team boundaries.

First player to recommend this week is G Van Bronkhorst. We can’t ignore Arsenal’s great matchup this week. Facing the crumbling Fulham at home (highest predicted margin 1.5). GvB has been amazing since mid-season, and this week he will be my transfer for Becks. Arsenal have 3 nice fixtures coming up, and they need every point.

Second player to recommend this week is Matt Holland. One of the predicted away wins this week is for Ipswich at Saint Marry’s. I don’t need to tell you about Southampton. They are bad. Attack them if you can, Holland to get to his early season expectations of 8 & 8. 

Third player to recommend is Nolberto Solano. I kept with him through his injury, so he must deliver right? Anyways, I think I recognize a failure of the model here. Because of Bolton’s crazy DWG, their away score has risen quite a bit. I think Newcastle are much better at home and will score a few.