by @TheSchachter

An introduction and explanation of the Simple Rating System can be found at the start of my GW17 article.

Let’s start by going over the GW31 predictions and results:

4/9 correct predictions. Another tough week for the model, and this 2 GWs run comes right after I was bragging that we should be expecting 7-8 correct predictions every week. We’ll just have to move on and hope that the model has been able to learn from his recent mistakes. Arsenal once again surprising us with their lack of ambition, Charlton getting that red card and Tigana’s last game for Fulham were some of the reasons the model failed.

1/3 correct recommendations. Again, when the model fails my model-based recommendations are also prone to failure. Steve G has delivered the goods, but the other two (the ones that are actually in my team) failed miserably.

Now for GW32 ratings and predictions:

SRS Ratings:

Home & Away Ratings:

Bayes Rating:

GW32 Predictions:

Great GW ahead of us. We have a Utd and Bolton double, and as usual I won’t be recommending Utd players as you all probably already have 3 of those (if not, you should). I personally wouldn’t go the Bolton route and the model reconfirms this thought. This is another tough GW for the model, the highest predicted margin is for Leeds away, which means the model doesn’t see a very strong home option.

First player to recommend this week is Ian Harte. If you’re like me and you moved Harte when he got injured, now is the time to bring him back. He has an excellent run ahead of him and last GW proved how dangerous is not having him. Leeds with the highest predicted margin away from home (-1.4) means an opportunity for a very high scoring game.

Second player to recommend this week is Francesco Zola. Chelsea has the highest home predicted margin (1.3) and Zola has been banging since the new manager came along. Zola was in my team in the first few GWs of the season, and I was tipping him to be the best value player in the game. He is now starting to reach this target.

Third player to recommend is G Festa. I have no idea what his first name is, but boy that dude returns points. Mid are facing Bolton with predicted margin of 1.1. I can see a clean sheet here for Festa and if owners are lucky a penalty as well.