by @TheSchachter

An introduction and explanation of the Simple Rating System can be found at the start of my GW17 article.

Let’s start by going over the GW30 predictions and results:

1/10 correct predictions. Ugh, that doesn’t feel right. You read it right 1/10 correct predictions! Even the one correct prediction was barley there, with Che getting 0.04 expected margin. In a week were Mun, Ars, Liv, Lee and Mid didn’t win it is to be expected. Those results have really hurt some of these teams’ ratings. Look at the images below.

1/3 correct recommendations. Not a great result in the recommendations department as well. Yorke didn’t even play and now he is gone for the season I believe. Kanoute and his team managed to concede 3 goals from Derby at home. My saving grace this week was Boksic, who could have done much more in my opinion. Moving on, lets hope for better results.

Now for GW31 ratings and predictions:

SRS Ratings:

Home & Away Ratings:

Bayes Rating:

GW31 Predictions:

After a GW like GW30 there is only one direction we can go, up. We have a blank GW with Mun and Bol sitting out. Let’s take a closer look on the teams that are playing.

First player to recommend this week is Stephen McPhail. Leeds has the highest expected margin this week, with 1.6 against New. We got a juicy leak from our scout, shockingly, McPhail goes straight back to the starting line-up. Personally, I have a soft spot for McPhail, and as always I think he will present great value for this week and the ones to come.

Second player to recommend this week is Steven Gerrard. Finally, I get to recommend my favorite player of all time. This week Gerrard and Liverpool are hosting Everton for the Merseyside derby and I am expecting a big result here. Everton has been very leaky in their defense, and there’s nothing harder than playing at Anfield. 

Third player to recommend is Ashley Cole. The only away win predicted for this week is for Arsenal, with -0.5 expected margin. Arsenal and Cole were great disappointment last week, but I have faith that they will bounce back and Ashley will have a chance to present his newly upgraded attributes. A clean sheet + attacking return is what I’m looking for from the great wing back.