by @TheSchachter

An introduction and explanation of the Simple Rating System can be found at the start of my GW17 article.

Let’s start by going over GW29 predictions and results:

5/10 correct predictions. A bit less than we got used to in recent weeks, 3 of the 5 misses were draws, which are always hard to catch. Having said that, we have caught a draw this week with Tot-Mid predicted margin of -0.02. Another amazing bullseye with Leeds win of exactly 1 predicted margin. Love to see that. Charlton and Man U wins also very close.

1/3 correct recommendations. Even worse this week in the recommendations department. I gave myself the Owen pick with his assist, but I was expecting a bit more of him. Nothing else needs to be said about RDB or Valakari. We move on.

Now for GW30 ratings and predictions:

SRS Ratings:

Home & Away Ratings:

Bayes Rating:

GW30 Predictions:

With hopes of getting back on the horse and achieving a higher prediction percentage let’s tackle the exciting GW30, there are very interesting matchups this week and many points to be had. 

First player to recommend this week is Dwight Yorke. I said I would only recommend him once a few weeks back, but his current value is just to good. As you might notice we have a rare GW where the highest predicted margin is for an away team – Man U. This smells like a battering and Dwight will again prove his value.

Second player to recommend this week is Alan Boksic. Highest predicted margin for a home team this week is Mid with 1.4. I know Boksic has been really disappointing all season (he was one of my “sure things” before we started). However he is facing a very week Fulham side and I have a feeling that in my next analysis Tigana will be back in France. 

Third player to recommend is Frederic Kanoute. The Hammers are having a bit of a resurgence in the last 2-3 GWs. Derby are a very very bad away team and so I can see Kanoute with 2 returns or more.