An introduction and explanation of the Simple Rating System can be found at the start of my GW17 article.
Let’s start by going over GW26 predictions and results:
5/7 correct predictions. Strong score again here. In a tough Blank GW the model has managed to predict most of the matches, including 2 away wins. Misses with Mid and Liv which in my opinion were very big surprises.
2/3 correct recommendations. Nailed it! This week my recommendations would have given you a clear green arrow. Yeah Pedersen didn’t play, but his team delivered, and it enabled my Selakovic captaincy! So yeah, Selakovic and Yorke did their job, moving on to our triple GW.
Now for GW27 ratings and predictions:
SRS Ratings:
Home & Away Ratings:
Bayes Rating:
GW27 Predictions:
This week we have a massive triple GW. 5 teams are doubling/tripling so the picks must come from those teams. However, I am not going to recommend Viduka, Shearer and their likes. So, lets look at some of the more quiet players that I predict will preform this week according to the model results.
First player to recommend this week is Craig Burley. We must have a Derby player recommendation, right? According to the model Derby are favorites against New, they slightly edge out Lee in their 2nd game, and they are a big underdog for their last match away to Eve. With 2 home games, I predict we can easily get a 10 pointer out of the friendly’s legend.
Second player to recommend this week is Nolberto Solano. Newcastle has a very appealing DWG, with all eyes of course to their 2nd match against Charlton at home. Solano has been out for the last couple of months, but he will be back with a shout. Goal/assist in each of his matches is my prediction here.
Third recommendation, and a very differential one for this week is Thierry Henry. Why am I recommending a single gw player? Because Ars are playing Lei away. The model gives a -0.8 expected margin here, and as we already know this kind of margin away from home suggest a big quality gap. I will not be surprised if Henry outscores some of the doubles, he will be in my eleven.
