by @TheSchachter

An introduction and explanation of the Simple Rating System can be found at the start of my GW17 article.

Let’s start by going over GW25 predictions and results:

8/10 correct predictions. Once again (3rd week in a row) the model proves correct. From now on in case of a draw I will consider a correct prediction anything below 0.2. As a reminder I am using the home/away ratings to predict the results of the week. I think we are very close to proving that this rating system really captures the way the game simulates matches and especially the strong home advantage for any team.

0/3 correct recommendations. Oh what a week for my recommendations. Eidur got injured and was not involved in any of Chelsea’s goals to my great disappointment. Terry missed out on a nice clean sheet and probably a bonus point. And Alan Smith again didn’t take part in his team’s 3 goals. At least the right teams were chosen 😊

Now for GW26 ratings and predictions:

SRS Ratings:

Home & Away Ratings:

Bayes Rating:

GW26 Predictions:

This week we only have 7 games, which makes the choice both easier and harder in the same time. Let’s do it!
First player to recommend this week is Henrik Pedersen. I am also personally backing this recommendation (with R Gardner on top) as a one-week punt. The model is already backing Bolton to win and if we add Fulham’s defense current status, I believe Bolton are going to score at least 2 goals.

Second player to recommend this week is Dwight Yorke. First and probably last time you will see this guy in the recommendations, but I believe it is his week. With an expected margin of 1.9 in the home game against Sunderland I predict Yorke to be involved in at least one goal. If you are looking for a one-week punt this might be the best one.

Third recommendation, Stefan Selakovic. With Tottenham healthy away expected margin of -1. I predict this will be a goal fest. Probably on both sides. Stefan has been quite recently, but what a better opportunity to turn up against poor Southampton.