by @TheSchachter

An introduction and explanation of the Simple Rating System can be found at the start of my GW17 article.

Let’s start by going over GW24 predictions and results:

8/11 correct predictions. Two weeks in a row now where the model achieves very high percentage of correct predictions. This is what we like to see coming into the last stretch of the season. This week predictions were especially on point. ARS one goal away win, MID & IPS 2 goals home wins. All in all, the model starting to prove its worth.
1/3 correct recommendations. Last week I started pointing out specific players to make it more interesting for you guys and for me. Only Ruud did the business out of my recommendations. Unfortunately, he got injured, so look into this week’s recommendations for the replacement.

Now for GW25 ratings and predictions:

SRS Ratings:

Home & Away Ratings:

Bayes Rating:

GW25 Predictions:

Continuing with our new tradition, lets pick 3 players according to the model to outperform their value this week. This week will be interesting, the highest predicted margin by the model is 1.47 for Leeds against Bolton (remember the model does not know that their team has been ravaged). So we are expecting a closer GW than usual.

First player to recommend this week is E Gudjohnsen. I said I will recommend a Ruud replacement and here is the first one. Coming up against weak Southampton (1.25 expected margin) and looking like the preferred option up front for Chelsea. Add bonus is his good fixture next GW when others blank. He will be my move this week.

Second player to recommend this week is John Terry. Doubling up on Chelsea this week. I just love to see that 0.01 goal prediction for Southampton and strongly believe we will see a clean sheet here. Like for the 1st recommendation, he also has a great game in the blank.