by @TheSchachter

An introduction and explanation of the Simple Rating System can be found at the start of my GW17 article.

Let’s start by going over GW23 predictions and results:

7/12 correct predictions. Not bad at all in a tough week and very weird results… Leeds… The model predicted nicely the Chelsea, Sunderland, Arsenal and Blackburn wins.
1/3 correct recommendations. Not so great tips this time. Sunderland did the expected, but Spurs have failed me once again. You will never see another Spurs recommendation here. Leeds did score the goals, however, I tipped them for a clean sheet, and this is the furthest you can get.

Now for GW24 ratings and predictions:

SRS Ratings:

Home & Away Ratings:

Bayes Rating:

GW24 Predictions:

For this week I’m gonna try and change this part a little bit. Instead of pointing out teams and situation I will directly recommend 3 players to outperform their value. I hope this will be a bit more interesting for you guys reading this.
So let’s get into it.

First player to recommend this week is Boa Morte. Fulham have the 2nd highest (lowest) negative margin -0.3. As we know, negative margin points for a big difference in quality. Fulham have been a bit disappointing lately, but I think meeting with Sou who will playing on attack is the perfect opportunity to bounce back.

Second player to recommend is Ruud Van Nistelroy. Remember when his ownership was 70-80%? Those days are gone. And I predict it will take a few GWs until everyone will have him again. Utd are meeting Lee at home and I think a Ruud brace is incoming. He will be on my team for sure. Expected margin of 0.9 and we can get a 2-1 here.

Third and last player, and a differential one, is Matt Holland. A few months ago, right before we started all this, I was tipping Holland to be the best value mid in the game. In the last few weeks he has been showing some flares and explanations as to why I thought he’ll be this good. Facing Der at home with an expected margin of 1.3, I can see Ips scoring more than one, and you know Holland will be involved if that happens.